US job growth in June fell short of expectations, with only 209K jobs added instead of the anticipated 230K.
According to the monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. added 209,000 jobs in June. This number slightly missed the expectation of 230,000 and was lower than the downwardly revised 306,000 jobs added in May. The initial report for May’s job gain was 339,000.
The unemployment rate in June decreased to 3.6% compared to 3.7% in May, which was in line with expectations of 3.7%.
Following the release of the report, the price of bitcoin (BTC) increased marginally to $30,250.
This news comes after the ADP’s impressive jobs report for June, where 497,000 jobs were added compared to the expected 220,000. This caused interest rates to rise sharply and bitcoin to decline by over 3% or $1,000.
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Although it was only a small deviation from expectations, this morning’s employment report is noteworthy as it breaks a streak of 14 consecutive months of exceeding expectations.
Further analysis of the report reveals that the labor force participation rate remained steady for the fourth consecutive month at 62.6%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% in June, surpassing estimates of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings were up by 4.4%, the same as May but higher than the estimated 4.2%.
In addition to revising May’s job gains downward by 33,000, April’s job additions were revised lower by 77,000 to 217,000. Overall, the revisions subtracted 110,000 jobs from the April and May reports.
Although there is still more economic data to come in July, this release marks the final national employment report before the Federal Reserve’s late July interest rate policy meeting. Prior to these latest numbers, the market had expected the central bank to resume rate hikes at that meeting.
The rate of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has decreased from its peak of 9.1% in 2022 to the current rate of 4.0%, but it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. Additionally, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, has been more stubborn, with the current rate of 5.3% showing a modest decrease from its peak of 6.6% last year.
The central bank has expressed the belief that a slower employment situation is necessary to control inflation, but so far, the jobs outlook has remained strong. Whether today’s softer payroll numbers indicate the beginning of a trend is yet to be determined.