ChatGPT’s $20,000 investment breakdown

ChatGPT's $20,000 investment breakdown

The Blockchain Industry: Trusting AI Advice in Investment Decision-Making

In 2023, the world has witnessed the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), with programs like Bard and ChatGPT offering answers to various queries and even providing assistance in writing college essays. While AI is based on machine learning, it raises questions about the trustworthiness of the advice it offers. To explore this further, we conducted an experiment by giving ChatGPT a budget of $10,000 to invest in stocks and $10,000 to invest in cryptocurrencies, following its advice.

Before delving into the experiment, it is important to note that ChatGPT explicitly states that the information it provides is not financial advice. It always recommends consulting with a financial advisor and conducting thorough research to make informed investment decisions. This caveat highlights the importance of human judgment and expertise in financial matters, despite the capabilities of AI.

The Breakdown of Investments

After some training, ChatGPT provided a breakdown of how the budget should be allocated across different stocks and cryptocurrencies. The suggested allocation for stocks is as follows:

Stock Percentage Total Invested
Apple Inc 10% $1,000
Amazon.com Inc 10% $1,000
Microsoft Corporation 9% $900
Alphabet Inc 9% $900
NVIDIA Corporation 8% $800
Tesla Inc 7% $700
NextEra Energy, Inc 7% $700
Amgen Inc 4% $400
Johnson & Johnson 4% $400
Moderna, Inc 4% $400
Pfizer Inc 4% $400
Gilead Sciences, Inc 3% $300
PayPal Holdings Inc 3% $300
General Motors Company 3% $300
NIO Inc 3% $300
First Solar, Inc 2% $200
Enphase Energy, Inc 2% $200
Shopify Inc 2% $200
Vestas Wind Systems A/S 2% $200
MercadoLibre, Inc 1% $100
Johnson Controls International plc 1% $100
Square, Inc 1% $100
Rivian 1% $100

For cryptocurrencies, the suggested allocation is as follows:

Coin Percentage Total Invested
Bitcoin 20% $2,000
Ethereum 20% $2,000
Binance Coin 10% $1,000
Litecoin 10% $1,000
Solana 10% $1,000
Polkadot 10% $1,000
Ripple 10% $1,000
Cardano 10% $1,000

The suggested breakdown of investments in stocks is relatively expected, with higher allocations to stable stocks and lower allocations to those with higher volatility. The cryptocurrency investments, on the other hand, are more intriguing. Out of the 1000+ coins available in the market, ChatGPT provided a shortlist of eight to invest in.

The Experiment: Assessing Performance

The experiment commenced with the first week, which started off on a slightly shaky note. Stocks ended the day with a profit of $159, while cryptocurrencies incurred a loss of $64. Among the cryptocurrencies, five out of the eight investments resulted in losses, with Binance Coin performing the worst, experiencing a $44 decrease in our $956 investment.

Throughout the week, stocks showed a gradual increase, except for a minor decrease on the last day, resulting in a final weekly total of $10,220. This represented a $220 increase from the initial investment, indicating a promising start for the experiment.

In contrast, the performance of our cryptocurrency investment in the first week was less impressive. Only three out of the seven days ended with a profit, and the fourth day turned out to be the worst for our entire experiment, resulting in an ending total of $9,741. Ethereum, one of the invested coins, experienced a loss of $114. However, the week ended on a slightly positive note, with a final total of $10,021, reflecting a $21 increase from the initial investment.

The second week unveiled a different story. The total value reached $10,643 by the end of the second day, marking a $423 increase from the previous week. However, this peak was short-lived as the value gradually decreased for the rest of the week, resulting in a final value of $10,492. Although this was $272 more than the final value of the first week, it fell $151 short of the second day’s total.

Interestingly, our cryptocurrency investment outperformed our stocks investment in the second week. It peaked at $11,118 on the fourth day but decreased slightly on the fifth and final day, resulting in a final value of $10,987. This represented a $967 increase from the first week.

The third week witnessed further decreases in our stocks investments, with nine out of 23 investments experiencing losses on the second and third day. However, the latter half of the week showed improvement, increasing the total value to $10,559 by the final day.

Similarly, our cryptocurrency investment followed a similar pattern, with a decrease at the beginning of the week but an increase towards the end. The final value dropped to $10,609 on the fourth day but then dramatically rose to $10,974 by the end of the fifth day. The final value for the week stood at $11,402, indicating a $415 increase from the previous week.

In the final week, the performance of our stock investments was underwhelming, with the overall value slightly decreasing to $10,587. This represented an overall increase of $587 from the initial investment, resulting in a 6% return on investment (ROI).

On the other hand, our cryptocurrency investments began the final week with a $314 increase, reaching a total of $11,719. This marked the highest end-of-day total achieved during the experiment. However, the value gradually decreased throughout the rest of the week, ending with a final total of $11,359, yielding a 14% ROI.

Overall Performance Assessment

Stocks

While our stock investments eventually turned a profit, it is noteworthy that ten out of the 23 investments resulted in losses, accounting for nearly 45% of the investments made. The worst-performing stock was Pfizer Inc., which experienced a decrease in the third week and ended up with a negative ROI of -10%. This decline followed the company’s announcement of discontinuing the development of the type 2 diabetes and obesity candidate, lotiglipron, due to safety concerns.

On the other hand, Rivian emerged as the best-performing stock, boasting an impressive ROI of 88%. Initially priced at $14.03 per stock, it increased to $25.51 over the course of the month. This significant growth was attributed to the announcement that Q2 2023 marked the best financial quarter in the company’s history.

Cryptocurrency

In contrast, our cryptocurrency investments fared much better, with only one investment resulting in a loss, accounting for 13% of the initial investment. Ripple (XRP) was the only coin that incurred a loss, primarily due to a significant decline in transaction volume, which dropped by 90%.

Among the cryptocurrencies, Solana (SOL) achieved the highest ROI of 39%, resulting in a $389 increase. SOL is considered a relatively stable coin with strong community support, making it an appealing investment option.

Hits or Misses?

While it could be argued that Bitcoin was suggested as one of the largest investments simply because it is the most prominent cryptocurrency, it proved to be a lucrative investment during the experiment. Its price surged from $26,000 to $30,000, driven by the news of a new and safer crypto exchange that received investments from Invesco and WisdomTree.

However, there is one stock that we believe ChatGPT may have overlooked: Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram. Meta recently launched a new app called Threads, which serves as a competitor to Twitter. The timing of this release was opportune, coinciding with news that Twitter was implementing limitations on the number of tweets users could see. Although ChatGPT did not suggest investing in META stocks, we analyzed historical data for the past month and found that a $1,000 investment in META would have resulted in a final value of $1,100. This outperformed the returns from the $1,000 invested in Amazon and Apple stocks.

Methodology

Our experiment began by seeking stock market opportunities from ChatGPT. Initially, it provided a generic answer regarding the industries that should be invested in and the reasons behind it. Based on those industries, we requested specific company recommendations. We then shared the entire list of suggested stocks with ChatGPT and asked for a weighting for the $10,000 investment.

In the process, we discovered that one of the suggested stocks, Waymo, was not a publicly traded company. We communicated this to ChatGPT and requested a replacement. Johnson Controls International plc was recommended as a replacement.

Regarding cryptocurrencies, obtaining advice from ChatGPT was relatively straightforward. It provided an initial list of coins and a general strategy for investing in cryptocurrencies. The strategy suggested allocating 40-50% to Bitcoin and Ethereum combined and 10-20% for each of the remaining coins. For our experiment, we allocated 20% to Bitcoin, 20% to Ethereum, and 10% to each of the remaining coins.

Overall, the experiment demonstrated the potential of AI in providing investment advice. While the stocks and cryptocurrency investments yielded mixed results, it is important to remember that AI should be used as a tool for decision-making rather than a replacement for human judgment. Consulting with financial advisors and conducting thorough research remains crucial in making well-informed investment decisions.

Stock Performance
Cryptocurrency Performance